A VERSION OF THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED IN TRIBUNE MAGAZINE 6/11/09
By Marjorie Smith
If the Cameron clique were to win power at the next general election, how would they go about governing Britain and what would be the consequences of 4-5 years of Tory rule? Although David William Malcolm Cameron and George Gideon Oliver Osborne have been deliberately vague in laying out their agenda, it can be accurately predicted where their priorities lie and where their prejudices will impact.
Besides the public pronouncements of the leadership clique and its camp followers, the future make-up of the Parliamentary Conservative party must also be taken account of. Cameron and his cohorts may well control the electoral fortunes of the party, but the Conservative party remains a far more reactionary grouping than its leadership. Where Thatcher reflected the prejudices of her party supporters, Cameron's apparent acquiescence/acceptance of personal liberty in the private sphere is at odds with the petite-bourgeois prejudices of most of his party. Even though it does resonate with the much smaller libertarian wing of the party.
Furthermore most of his support within the Tory party is based on a mute acceptance that Cameron's apparent electoral popularity can deliver a Conservative Government for the first time in twelve long years of opposition. There is little real support for Cameron's commitments concerning the NHS and Overseas Development aid and Cameron would rapidly lose the confidence of his party if he was ever to become to be perceived as an electoral liability.
Like the Labour party in the mid-1990s, most modern day Conservatives will accept a weak ideological leadership clique if it appears to promise, firstly, electoral success and secondly delivers on a modicum of core party values. That acceptance however, is predicated purely on producing electoral success and the continued delivery of such core values in traditional policy areas that the party has always been concerned with (e.g. health and education for Labour).
For the Conservatives this means firstly, an abiding belief in that the market will nearly always be the most efficient method of delivering goods and services. Secondly, as a consequence they believe that the State is incapable of delivering public services through the public sector without incurring gross inefficiencies. Thirdly, they will expect to see tax cuts, both on earned and non-earned income with cuts in inheritance tax being a particular favourite. Finally, the party wants to see an aggressive euroscepticism that should aim to leave the UK as a semi-detached member of the EU, happy to benefit from the advantages it delivers for capital (free movement of goods), but continually hostile to any advantages it delivers to labour (e.g. The Social Chapter).
To deliver on such core Tory values in the current economic climate means making savage cuts in public services. It will be public sector workers who will bear the brunt of a Tory government hell-bent on reducing the size of the state. The Tories have already claimed to have ring-fenced Health and Overseas aid and you can't see them taking an axe to the Ministry of Defence, despite their bluster over the size of the Defence bureaucracy. They have long professed their green credentials so would find it hard to scrap too many environmental commitments or projects either.
As a consequence there will be massive job cuts, as privatisation of selected public services, especially at local government level, will be back in vogue. This will undoubtedly radically effect the education and social services budgets and lead to mass redundancies/outsourcing in these areas. Local Education Authorities will be the first in line for decapitation.
Central Government expenditure will also face swingeing cuts especially in the other areas of Children, Schools and Families with Sure Start being just the first in the Tory firing line. It can also be expected that the school building programme will be radically scaled back and Tory promises about the NHS will eventually be exposed as the sham they are.
They may now promise to keep to the level of current expenditure on the NHS, but this will undoubtedly be frozen in the medium to long-term leading to cuts in real terms. The same will apply to Overseas Development, with an initial commitment designed to disguise a decline of funds committed in the future.
The commitment to the NHS should be seen as the product of base self-interest and a reflection of the success of Labour's massive investment in the NHS. By the successful squeezing out a large amount of self-funded private health care, the private sector in health is presently incapable of providing chronic health to any great degree (e.g. intensive care beds, treatment of chronic illnesses and of long-term care of the severely disabled).
Hence, even committed Tories have to accept the status quo, for now. However, expect a gradual but perceptible rise in the role of private health care providers creaming off lucrative work from the NHS and providing alternative private care in an increasing number of areas. Remember that Daniel Hannan, Conservative MEP, is not alone amongst Conservatives when he called the NHS a “60 year old mistake” live on US television.
They will strive, though, to have massive cuts in the field of local government care services for example. They have already signalled that only the rich and the affluent middle classes will be insured against the cost of chronic needs care in old age with their recently trumpeted care for the elderly policy. Despite the fact that Osborne's figures don't add up, this will be out of the reach of many, with a couple having to find £32,000 at retirement age to opt in. Of course Labour's proposal for a National Care Service will be cast aside.
Public sector pay will also be continually in the Tory firing line, with below inflation pay-rises, year upon year, leading to damagingly lower pay levels and a growing lack of esteem for public sector jobs. This prejudice against the public sector was a central part of Thatcherism and it took a long time for the public sector to recover from 18 years of Tory misrule.
The Tories commitments to tax cuts remain undiminished, they still have a Reaganite belief that the lower the tax take, the more efficient the country is. It appears, to them, that the last period of Tory Government was in fact a Shangri-La with a highly efficient economy producing unparalleled levels of public service provision efficiently delivered by the private sector, when in fact public services were moribund, with a crumbling infrastructure, historically low levels of pay and continual cuts in resources as everything and everybody was turned into a profit centre.
The first tax cuts the Tories will introduce will be in the field of inheritance tax, with the richest 20,000 families befitting disproportionately when compared with the middle classes and the working class getting nothing out of it. Amongst those receiving the biggest benefit will be D.W.M. Cameron and G.G.O. Osborne. Cameron is already worth in excess of £30,000,000 (yes, a staggering thirty million) and Osborne is currently worth in excess of £4,000,000 and stands to inherit a whole lot more.
What a future Tory Government will also strive to do is to deliver on cuts in income tax either through cutting higher rates of tax for the well-off or initially increasing the levels that higher rates of tax kick-in. It is only because of the current economic crisis that the Tories have reluctantly agreed to keeping the higher rates of tax for the first year of a prospective Tory Government. Make no mistake they want to go a whole lot further and will do so if they are returned to power.
One of the biggest dangers to the Labour Party is the Tories proposals on constitutional reform. Herein lies the opportunity for the Tories to jerrymander their way to a leviathanatic position in British politics for the foreseeable future. Using the expenses scandal as their Trojan horse under the guise of reforming Parliament and cutting down on the cost of running the Parliamentary estate is a unsubtle constitutional mendacity designed to ride the wave of public disgust over the expenses scandal. Be aware that if they get away with it, it will establish a Tory hegemony over central government in the UK that would take an electoral earthquake of 1997 proportions to break.
Cameron's proposals to cut the number of MP s from 636 to 500, is a naked attempt to redraw constituency boundaries in Labour strongholds and cut the number of MPs from the same areas. London, the North West, the East and West Midlands, Scotland and Wales will see a significant reduction in the number of MPs, all of them, by no coincidence, Labour heartlands.
It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Labour could lose up to 50-75 constituencies for ever where it would be expected to be the leading party, whilst the Nationalist and Lib Dems could lose 20-30 seats and the Tories 10-20. This would lead to an inbuilt Tory majority in England and the likelihood of the Tories having a semi-permanent veto over who would form a UK government in Westminster.
It would also add grist to the mill of separatist nationalism in Scotland and Wales as their traditional political cultures will find themselves in a continual confrontational position with a Tory Government. Of course continued House of Lords reform would be halted and proportional representation will be put on the back-burner. Alex Salmond and David Cameron would inevitably discover they have real common interests.
Finally, the Tories are prepared to adopt an isolationist foreign policy for the UK that is at odds with historical UK interests for the for the first time in centuries. The decision to opt-out of the main centre-right grouping in the EU presages a desire to achieve ideological purity in the area of euroscepticism. Expect a bellicose nationalism to consistently erupt from the backbenches of the Tories as they deal with the EU as if it was 'a foreign power hell-bent on breaking up Britain into bite-size morsels for its masters in Brussels'.
The frontbenches will also try and enhance the one-way special relationship with the USA, failing to see the contradiction in their policy position on the EU. With the US far preferring the UK playing a leading role in a stable EU as a strategic partner, rather than a medium-size country sniping from the sidelines, reduced to being a useful gopher in NATO and not much else.
The duplicity of the modern-day Tory party, with its smarmy leadership, skilled in communication and not much else; with a Shadow Chancellor already found guilty of economic innumeracy; an unreconstructed rabid right-wing forming the vast majority of its membership as well as most of its parliamentary party, would be a disaster for the UK.
After all they are led by an Old Etonian who blames big government and not the financial sector for the current recession. Throw in the fact that there policies in the face of the economic crisis would inevitably lead to a double-dip recession. The return of a Tory government would be a disaster for the UK, with the likelihood of an independent Scotland and a permanent right-wing majority in the remainder of the UK a very real possibility.
If the Cameron clique were to win power at the next general election, how would they go about governing Britain and what would be the consequences of 4-5 years of Tory rule? Although David William Malcolm Cameron and George Gideon Oliver Osborne have been deliberately vague in laying out their agenda, it can be accurately predicted where their priorities lie and where their prejudices will impact.
Besides the public pronouncements of the leadership clique and its camp followers, the future make-up of the Parliamentary Conservative party must also be taken account of. Cameron and his cohorts may well control the electoral fortunes of the party, but the Conservative party remains a far more reactionary grouping than its leadership. Where Thatcher reflected the prejudices of her party supporters, Cameron's apparent acquiescence/acceptance of personal liberty in the private sphere is at odds with the petite-bourgeois prejudices of most of his party. Even though it does resonate with the much smaller libertarian wing of the party.
Furthermore most of his support within the Tory party is based on a mute acceptance that Cameron's apparent electoral popularity can deliver a Conservative Government for the first time in twelve long years of opposition. There is little real support for Cameron's commitments concerning the NHS and Overseas Development aid and Cameron would rapidly lose the confidence of his party if he was ever to become to be perceived as an electoral liability.
Like the Labour party in the mid-1990s, most modern day Conservatives will accept a weak ideological leadership clique if it appears to promise, firstly, electoral success and secondly delivers on a modicum of core party values. That acceptance however, is predicated purely on producing electoral success and the continued delivery of such core values in traditional policy areas that the party has always been concerned with (e.g. health and education for Labour).
For the Conservatives this means firstly, an abiding belief in that the market will nearly always be the most efficient method of delivering goods and services. Secondly, as a consequence they believe that the State is incapable of delivering public services through the public sector without incurring gross inefficiencies. Thirdly, they will expect to see tax cuts, both on earned and non-earned income with cuts in inheritance tax being a particular favourite. Finally, the party wants to see an aggressive euroscepticism that should aim to leave the UK as a semi-detached member of the EU, happy to benefit from the advantages it delivers for capital (free movement of goods), but continually hostile to any advantages it delivers to labour (e.g. The Social Chapter).
To deliver on such core Tory values in the current economic climate means making savage cuts in public services. It will be public sector workers who will bear the brunt of a Tory government hell-bent on reducing the size of the state. The Tories have already claimed to have ring-fenced Health and Overseas aid and you can't see them taking an axe to the Ministry of Defence, despite their bluster over the size of the Defence bureaucracy. They have long professed their green credentials so would find it hard to scrap too many environmental commitments or projects either.
As a consequence there will be massive job cuts, as privatisation of selected public services, especially at local government level, will be back in vogue. This will undoubtedly radically effect the education and social services budgets and lead to mass redundancies/outsourcing in these areas. Local Education Authorities will be the first in line for decapitation.
Central Government expenditure will also face swingeing cuts especially in the other areas of Children, Schools and Families with Sure Start being just the first in the Tory firing line. It can also be expected that the school building programme will be radically scaled back and Tory promises about the NHS will eventually be exposed as the sham they are.
They may now promise to keep to the level of current expenditure on the NHS, but this will undoubtedly be frozen in the medium to long-term leading to cuts in real terms. The same will apply to Overseas Development, with an initial commitment designed to disguise a decline of funds committed in the future.
The commitment to the NHS should be seen as the product of base self-interest and a reflection of the success of Labour's massive investment in the NHS. By the successful squeezing out a large amount of self-funded private health care, the private sector in health is presently incapable of providing chronic health to any great degree (e.g. intensive care beds, treatment of chronic illnesses and of long-term care of the severely disabled).
Hence, even committed Tories have to accept the status quo, for now. However, expect a gradual but perceptible rise in the role of private health care providers creaming off lucrative work from the NHS and providing alternative private care in an increasing number of areas. Remember that Daniel Hannan, Conservative MEP, is not alone amongst Conservatives when he called the NHS a “60 year old mistake” live on US television.
They will strive, though, to have massive cuts in the field of local government care services for example. They have already signalled that only the rich and the affluent middle classes will be insured against the cost of chronic needs care in old age with their recently trumpeted care for the elderly policy. Despite the fact that Osborne's figures don't add up, this will be out of the reach of many, with a couple having to find £32,000 at retirement age to opt in. Of course Labour's proposal for a National Care Service will be cast aside.
Public sector pay will also be continually in the Tory firing line, with below inflation pay-rises, year upon year, leading to damagingly lower pay levels and a growing lack of esteem for public sector jobs. This prejudice against the public sector was a central part of Thatcherism and it took a long time for the public sector to recover from 18 years of Tory misrule.
The Tories commitments to tax cuts remain undiminished, they still have a Reaganite belief that the lower the tax take, the more efficient the country is. It appears, to them, that the last period of Tory Government was in fact a Shangri-La with a highly efficient economy producing unparalleled levels of public service provision efficiently delivered by the private sector, when in fact public services were moribund, with a crumbling infrastructure, historically low levels of pay and continual cuts in resources as everything and everybody was turned into a profit centre.
The first tax cuts the Tories will introduce will be in the field of inheritance tax, with the richest 20,000 families befitting disproportionately when compared with the middle classes and the working class getting nothing out of it. Amongst those receiving the biggest benefit will be D.W.M. Cameron and G.G.O. Osborne. Cameron is already worth in excess of £30,000,000 (yes, a staggering thirty million) and Osborne is currently worth in excess of £4,000,000 and stands to inherit a whole lot more.
What a future Tory Government will also strive to do is to deliver on cuts in income tax either through cutting higher rates of tax for the well-off or initially increasing the levels that higher rates of tax kick-in. It is only because of the current economic crisis that the Tories have reluctantly agreed to keeping the higher rates of tax for the first year of a prospective Tory Government. Make no mistake they want to go a whole lot further and will do so if they are returned to power.
One of the biggest dangers to the Labour Party is the Tories proposals on constitutional reform. Herein lies the opportunity for the Tories to jerrymander their way to a leviathanatic position in British politics for the foreseeable future. Using the expenses scandal as their Trojan horse under the guise of reforming Parliament and cutting down on the cost of running the Parliamentary estate is a unsubtle constitutional mendacity designed to ride the wave of public disgust over the expenses scandal. Be aware that if they get away with it, it will establish a Tory hegemony over central government in the UK that would take an electoral earthquake of 1997 proportions to break.
Cameron's proposals to cut the number of MP s from 636 to 500, is a naked attempt to redraw constituency boundaries in Labour strongholds and cut the number of MPs from the same areas. London, the North West, the East and West Midlands, Scotland and Wales will see a significant reduction in the number of MPs, all of them, by no coincidence, Labour heartlands.
It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Labour could lose up to 50-75 constituencies for ever where it would be expected to be the leading party, whilst the Nationalist and Lib Dems could lose 20-30 seats and the Tories 10-20. This would lead to an inbuilt Tory majority in England and the likelihood of the Tories having a semi-permanent veto over who would form a UK government in Westminster.
It would also add grist to the mill of separatist nationalism in Scotland and Wales as their traditional political cultures will find themselves in a continual confrontational position with a Tory Government. Of course continued House of Lords reform would be halted and proportional representation will be put on the back-burner. Alex Salmond and David Cameron would inevitably discover they have real common interests.
Finally, the Tories are prepared to adopt an isolationist foreign policy for the UK that is at odds with historical UK interests for the for the first time in centuries. The decision to opt-out of the main centre-right grouping in the EU presages a desire to achieve ideological purity in the area of euroscepticism. Expect a bellicose nationalism to consistently erupt from the backbenches of the Tories as they deal with the EU as if it was 'a foreign power hell-bent on breaking up Britain into bite-size morsels for its masters in Brussels'.
The frontbenches will also try and enhance the one-way special relationship with the USA, failing to see the contradiction in their policy position on the EU. With the US far preferring the UK playing a leading role in a stable EU as a strategic partner, rather than a medium-size country sniping from the sidelines, reduced to being a useful gopher in NATO and not much else.
The duplicity of the modern-day Tory party, with its smarmy leadership, skilled in communication and not much else; with a Shadow Chancellor already found guilty of economic innumeracy; an unreconstructed rabid right-wing forming the vast majority of its membership as well as most of its parliamentary party, would be a disaster for the UK.
After all they are led by an Old Etonian who blames big government and not the financial sector for the current recession. Throw in the fact that there policies in the face of the economic crisis would inevitably lead to a double-dip recession. The return of a Tory government would be a disaster for the UK, with the likelihood of an independent Scotland and a permanent right-wing majority in the remainder of the UK a very real possibility.
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