EGYPT HAS BEEN A BARRIER TO PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

A version of this post was published in Tribune magazine on 11/02/11

By Marjorie Smith

The US's overt policy of keeping Egypt as a pliant State and allowing a brutal dictator to stay in place has directly led to decades of instability in the Middle East. Washington's, and by extension the UK's, foreign policy pragmatism has, in effect, only served to undermine progress in the Middle East by effectively removing from the scene, one of only three key actors in the region.

This pragmatism has also led to Mubarak's 30 year-rule being marked by an almost unparalleled tyranny of the Egyptian people. The recent appointment of the Head of the Security police Omar Suleiman to Vice-President is a ruse to preserve Mubarak's power base. A small elite controls Egyptian society and this reactionary force, a nomenclatura in itself, is desperately fighting to retain its wealth, power and stranglehold over what has been up until now a rigorous hierarchical political and social culture.

Egypt is on the cusp of a social as well as a political revolution. Like in Tunisia, the population has had enough of the old ways. External information sources (plaudits ought to especially go to Al-Jazeera, social media and Wikileaks amongst others) have combined to demonstrate how despotic and kleptocratic many regimes in the Arab world are.

"The three big 'players' in the region, Egypt, Iran and Israel have failed to establish normal relations as an emasculated Egypt has singularly declined to play its part. "

Because of this situation, the Middle East is currently a hotbed of competing strategic interests by nation states that are becoming evermore politically unstable. There is immense dissatisfaction with the varied 'ocracies' in the region, Iran (theocracy), Yemen (theocratic autocracy), Iraq (nascent but fragile democracy), Syria (dynastic autocracy), Egypt (nepotistic kleptocracy) and Saudi Arabia (monarchical autocracy).

The three big 'players' in the region, Egypt, Iran and Israel have failed to establish normal relations as an emasculated Egypt has singularly declined to play its part. Normally, one would expect Egypt to play a pivotal role in the region. It has historically been the leading country in the Arab world and by extension in the Middle East generally.

However, Mubarak's rule has resulted in a dangerous vacuum developing in which a sustainable stability has been unconsciously (?) undermined. The US's blinkered focus on ensuring the security of Israel by neutralising Egypt has allowed Tel Aviv to act with impunity in their interaction with the Palestinians and has allowed Tehran to exert much greater influence than it normally would have hoped to.

It can be argued that the failure of Egypt to authoritatively engage with the Arab world has also allowed disaffection and disunity to take root and contributed to the present day instability. Would Lebanon have descended into civil war if Egypt had played a leadership role? Would Saddam Hussein have dared to invade another Arab neighbour if Egypt had been a confident stable and democratic force in the Arab world?

Iran's backing of Hamas and Hezbollah exemplify its foreign policy objectives for the region. Consequently, Egyptian political impotence has allowed Middle Eastern politics to be seen only through the prism of Israeli security in light of the ambitions of Iran as a regional actor. It serves Tel Aviv well to play up the threat of Iran because it serves its own objectives of keeping Washington onside.

The shameful action of Mubarak and his cronies in collaborating in the siege of Gaza has only led to greater desperation by the Palestinians whilst the Israelis have been able to pretend that they can't negotiate with anybody because no partner can deliver a peace on its own. Egypt's inaction has been Hamas' gain.

It is perverse that massive military aid by the US to Egypt, once Israeli's greatest threat, has bribed a small clique into doing Washington's bidding. A confident, secure Egypt would be a counterbalance to Iranian influence in the region as pan-Arabism (with mainly Sunni Muslim populations) is a more powerful political force than Iran's form of Shia Islam as a unifying force. Egypt is naturally the political and cultural leader of the Arab world and there is very little love lost between the Arabs and Iranians.

Egyptian society is a complex mix of competing forces and the only reason why the Muslim brotherhood became a force is as a direct result of Mubarak's violent repression of any internal opposition. Desperate people were forced into undertaking desperate measures and the brotherhood was able to capitalise on that desperation.

Mubarak has allowed Egypt to be emasculated and that encouraged the re-growth of Palestinian violent reaction over the past 10 years leading to the polarisation of Palestinian politics and the disastrous civil war between Hamas and Fatah.

The Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan in Arabic) is not the threat that Mubarak and Israel say it is, it is not a coherent group with a recognisable political ideology but a theocratic movement that does not have majority support in Egypt. Whilst it may gain an influential bloc in any new Parliament, if free and fair elections are held, it is highly unlikely that it would win an outright majority.

The Brotherhood (clearly starting from a low base on gender politics) has been the straw dog of Egyptian politics with Mubarak and his henchmen grossly exaggerating the threat that it posed and labelling it a terrorist organisation In order to leverage large amounts of US military aid which was employed to repress the population as a whole.

Individual acts of terror in Egypt such as the Luxor massacre of 62 tourists at Temple of Hatshepsut in 1997, was conducted by Islamic terrorists from Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya ("The Islamic Group") and Jihad Talaat al-Fath ("Holy War of the Vanguard of the Conquest").. Neither is or was associated with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian society is a diverse mixture of all shades of Islam plus Christian and secular forces and like the demonstrations against Mubarak and his cronies has shown, democratic change has huge support. The UK and the EU should disassociate themselves from US policy and encourage a rapid transition to free and fair elections and provide massive aid in order to construct a modern, outward looking civil society with an emphasis on good governance and the rule of law.

If the US really wanted to play a constructive role in the region, it would cut off military aid immediately, switch the funding to providing welfare aid programmes focusing on relieving poverty and financing a rapid expansion in education as well as encouraging a pluralistic political environment in Egypt.

To establish long-term peace in the region a democratic confident Egypt able to negotiate from a position of strength is the best hope for the Middle East. It would also give the Palestinian people a dependable ally whose backing would be able to guarantee equality at the negotiating table with Israel.

It is in Israel's long-term interests to see a sustainable conclusion to the Middle East peace process that can only be achieved if it is underpinned by a free and democratic country that can be the leading force in the Arab world.

Egypt's strategic position in the Middle East has been distorted by internal repression for far too long. It is time it took centre stage again and plays its part in establishing a permanent peace in the region.