Analysis of the Irish Referendum Result

I've received this from a source in the European Parliament

"To recall the outcome:

2008 2009
TURNOUT 53% 59%

YES 46.4% 67.1%

NO 53.2% 32.9%



Following a survey on voting behaviour in the 2009 Lisbon Treaty referendum in Ireland, compared with the 2008 referendum, it appears that the following lessons can be drawn.

Firstly, the performance of the Irish economy in 2009 compared to 2008 was highly significant for all 'Yes' voters and in particular for those voters who switched from 'No' to 'Yes' or 'Abstain' to 'Yes'.

Secondly, the change in support amongst women voters was very significant, 66% of women voters voted 'Yes' in 2009, compared to 44% in 2008. The 'Yes' campaigns' outreach to women voters was particularly successful.

Thirdly, apart from women, the increase in support for the 'Yes' campaign was most marked in the categories of people who stayed in education post-20 years of age and amongst manual workers, the latter being most susceptible to the economic crisis.

Fourthly, the credibility of the 'Yes' campaign was dramatically improved as reflected in the referendum outcome. 67% of voters believed that the 'Yes' campaign had been the most effective in 2009 whilst the same percentage thought that the 'No' campaign had been the most effective in 2008. Voters also felt more involved in the debate in 2009.

Fifthly, the increased level of information about the Treaty among citizens was notable, although attention should be paid to the switch from official sources to informal or independent sources which were quite marked.

Sixthly, the guarantees obtained by the Irish Government eliminated an argument for the 'No' campaign but compared with the economy – was less decisive for the 'Yes' vote.
Finally, most citizens who voted decided which way they would vote in 2009 shortly after the first referendum and hence fewer of them made up their minds only in the last week of the 2009 campaign.

This stability indicates that the 'Yes' campaign was successful not only in safeguarding the already existing support basis of the Treaty, but also in counteracting the effects of the 'No' campaign, which had a reduced traction as an increased proportion of voters had already made their decision.