The new centre-right German coalition of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Free Democrats (FDP) continues to be shaken by divisions which apart from the smouldering conflict on tax policy have branched into foreign policy issues, such as Afghanistan and Turkey's EU perspective. Foreign Minister Westerwelle´s recent visit to Ankara, has sparked off significant controversies over Ankara´s EU perspective. Bavarian CSU politicians, who still resent the fact that the coalition agreement describes the EU accession process with Ankara as an "open-end process", massively criticised Westerwelle, and called for a stop of accession talks.
On Afghanistan the partners are at odds over the number of additional troops and the mention of an exit date. Merkel announced that the new government strategy for Afghanistan would not be announced until after the London conference on 28Jan. The SPD, in the meantime is trying to conquer territory by organising a high-level conference on 22 January in Berlin, which EU's High Representative and Vice-President Cathy Ashton and the Afghan Foreign Minister will attend.
In addition, the coalition partners are at odds about an issue of great importance to German-Polish relations: the appointment of CDU MP Erika Steinbach to the board of the planned museum for displaced persons (in particular Germans after WW II) which is rejected by FM Westerwelle, who has made good relations with Poland one of his priorities.
Calls on Merkel to show more leadership have become a permanent feature of the domestic debate but have reached a new intensity and dimension as these calls are coming increasingly from within her own party given that the Bavarian CSU and FDP appear to be setting the headlines. Merkel has called leaders of CSU and FDP for a meeting this coming Sunday, to end the cacophony, to define a common line - in particular on the subject of tax cuts/budget consolidation - and to enable a "new start for the government".
The internal controversies about Chancellor Merkel´s style of leadership and the lack of unity in the centre-right coalition will also be on the agenda during the CDU recess scheduled for Thursday this week. A recent opinion poll issued by the ARD public TV (Deutschlandtrend) showed diminishing support for the Chancellor: only 59 per cent of Germans proclaimed themselves satisfied with her work which is her worst result since 2006 ( in December 2009 the support was at 70 per cent). 82 per cent are of the opinion that the Chancellor must make better use of her leadership competences and only 51 per cent are convinced that the present coalition is able to cope with the crisis, and the challenges.
One such challenge for the Government is to define a new strategy on Afghanistan. Shortly before the London Afghanistan conference scheduled for January 28th , the German response to the US expectations of a significant increase in German troops remains unclear: Chancellor Merkel said the future German Afghanistan strategy would not be unveiled before the summit in London. The elaboration of a common German position within the coalition becomes difficult given the differences between Defence Minister zu Guttenberg (CSU) and Foreign Minister Westerwelle (FDP). While the FDP leader would prefer to focus the London conference on an exit strategy instead of a debate on troop increase, the Defence Minister seems to be more willing to make concessions to the US government. Especially, so his argument, as the controversial German-ordered air strike in September 2009 is the best example of mounting violence and changed circumstances the Bundeswehr faces in Afghanistan.
Yet, zu Guttenberg has already signalled that the US demand for 2,500 more German troops "is unrealistic". According to sources close to government, the most probable compromise will be to send no more than 1,000 additional soldiers and without a fundamental change in the character of the mission which should continue to focus on reconstruction and training for Afghan military and police forces. The Afghanistan mission is highly unpopular among Germans, and this can not be ignored by any political leadership. According to a recent survey published by infratest-dimap, the support for the Bundeswehr deployment in Afghanistan has further declined. Only 26 per cent are in favour of the German presence at the Hindu Kush, 71 per cent would like to see an immediate withdrawal.
FM Westerwelle´s recent visit to Ankara, has brought to the forefront the smouldering conflict on Turkey's accession. CSU politicians still have attacked Westerwelle over the positive stance he took towards the political and economic developments in Turkey as well as to the country's EU membership perspective during his visit - notwithstanding the fact that Westerwelle remained within the framework of the coalition agreement. CSU has called for a stop of negotiations. The reactions within the CDU where mixed: while the foreign policy speaker of the CDU group in the Bundestag, Philipp Mißfelder, supported the harsh line taken by the CSU, the chair of the foreign policy committee of the Bundestag, Ruprecht Polenz, defended FM Westerwelle arguing that he had not said anything what could put in question the line defined in the coalition agreement. In a debriefing at the Foreign Affairs Ministry, the Head of the Turkey Unit confirmed that FM Westerwelle would continue to support Turkey´s accession process not only at the domestic front but also at EU level as he did during the recent December Council.
The nomination of CDU MP Erika Steinbach, the president of the German Federation of Expellees, to the board of a planned museum on displaced persons is yet another issue of infighting between the partners. FM Westerwelle has vetoed Ms Steinbach's nomination out of respect of keeping good relations with Poland where Ms Steinbach's candidacy is fiercely objected. The fact that in 1990 Ms Steinbach has voted against the recognition of Poland's western border in the bilateral agreements and once opposed Poland's membership in the EU (but revised her position on both issues in the meantime) made her a kind of persona-non grata in Warsaw.
Last week, Ms Steinbach made a controversial proposal to the government: she would renounce to a seat at the board if a number of conditions are met: a significant increase of representatives of the Expellees Federation in the museum's board as well as less governmental control over the project. First reactions from the FDP show that Ms Steinbach's list of demands has no chance of being accepted. On the other hand, a political solution must be found soon in order to avoid an open political confrontation. The Federation of Expellees announced it would officially propose Ms Steinbach for the museum's board if the government failed to respond to her list of demands by the end of January.
It's anything but plain sailing for Angela Merkel in Berlin
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