Why the Election is too close to call

The interesting thing about Thursday night and Friday morning is that there are several new variables that makes any reliable prediction fraught with difficulty.

1. The expenses scandal is still fresh in the memory of the electorate. Public anger with the political class is still highly pertinent when it comes to voter choice. Whilst both Clegg and Cameron have tried to stake out their claim that they are the agents of change in response to public anger, Brown as the incumbent PM could not follow this strategy. Clegg as the Parliamentary outsider has benefitted from this but not significantly. Furthermore, there is a large increase in the number of independents standing in the election and this will draw some support away from the main parties in some seats and may actually increase the number of independent MPs elected (although not by much).

2. The three televised debates between the three main party leaders was a new phenomon in British electoral politics and became the central and defining factor in the election with all three party leaders being seen through the prism of the the televised debates. The Liberal Democrat leader was the undoubted beneficiary of theis innovation. From enjoying equal status with the two main party leaders to a confident and erudite series of performances this has enabled Clegg to be taken seriously by the public and media alike and increased the public perception that voting for the Lib Dems was no longer a wasted vote.

3. The number of incumbents standing is far far lower than any previous election in living memory. An active incumbent MP can buck the national trend by up to 10% of the vote if they have a good local reputation. In this election over 25% of the incumbent MPs are not standing.

4. The extremely well-funded long-term campaign in the key marginals by the Conservatives (funded by a tax exiled lord Ashcroft) will no doubt have some impact in these parliamentary seats although not necessarily as widespead as those who designed and implmented the startegy would have hoped.

5. Re-drawing of Parliamentary boundaries for 500 seats, although one can estimate the effects of this by comparing with local council elections in those areas, the much greater turnout at a general election 60-70% compared to 10-15% makes accurate extrapolation immensely difficult. However based on 2005 results the redrawing undoubtedly benefits the Conservatives with such a calculation resulting in the conservatives winning 12 more seats in 2005 and Labour losing 7 more seats. A benefit of about 2.5%.

6. Electoral Maths (1) - although the Conservatives appearv to have a healthy lead in the polls +/- 35% to the other parties +/- 26/27/28%, the electoral mathematics of the first-past-the -post sytem and the differing size of constituencies means that Labour could gain more seats with 30% of the national vote than the Conservatives with 35% of the national vote and that the Lib Dems with 28-30% of the vote would still mean that they would be the third party by a wide margin..

7. Electoral Maths (2), although Labour won the 2005 election with a majority of 66 seats agaoiansty the combined number of no Labour seats, the effect of the Conservatives campaign in 2005 has gone largely unreported. Where the Conservatives were succesful was in hollowing out support for Labour in a significant number of marginal seats which now have very small majorities

8. Regional differences - Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Although all three regions are electorally quite different, both Scotland and Wales may well see a resurgence in suppoprt for Labour (Labour is 10% ahead in the polls in Scotland) with the attraction of voting for nationalists far less appealing if that would help to let in a Conservative Government, whilst voting for the Scottish or Welsh Nationalists was seen as a risk-free strategy when there was a Labour Government in Westminster, the residual antipathy to the Conservatives (largely due to the Thatcher administration's perceived policies) remains highly significant and will serve as a bulwark to Labour votes and anti-Tory turnout generally.
In Northern Ireland the apparent hegemony of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has been severely undermined by the scandals associated with the DUP leader Peter Robinson. Hence the Official Unionist Party (in alliance with Cameron's conservatives) will realistically hope to increase their number of seats (currently one) at the expense of the DUP, althought the official Unionists look like losing the only seat they currently have because the popular incumbent resigned in protest at the alliance and will stand as an independent (and would vote with Labour ) with a good chance of re-election. The 5 seats held by the Republican party Sinn Fein should remain about the same (4-5) with no impact nationally as they have a policy of abstentionism from the UK Parliament as they see as illegitimate in respect of Northern Ireland.

9. The impact of the EU on voting intentions - although the EU generally has fallen down the list of voters' preoccupations and this would have favoured the Conservatives as previous UK Independence Party voters reverted to the right-wing mainstream, the issue of EU immigration became a highly volatile issue late in the campaign thanks to Duffygate and perversely may electorally damage the Conservatives more than Labour as UKIP's campaign was given an unintentional boost.
10. The impact of the media's campaign, although the majority of the UK print media by readership (Sun, Mail, Express, Times, Telegraph, Star) is supporting David Cameron's Conservatives, the viscous campign against Brown (generally) and Clegg (after the 1st televised debate) appears to have backfired with voters and seems to have marginilised the influence of the print media to a much greater extent than in previous elections. 11. The Iraq war effect, Labour suffered electorally from discontent over the Iraq war in 2005 which weakened its core support and encouraged some to switch to the Lib Dems in protest (e.g. Hornsey and Wood Green), it's impact may have been decisive in 5-10 seats (especially in London and the South-East). With Blair gone and the war mainly out of the headlines, many of those protest votes could reluctantly return.12. Many people have already voted (well over 10%) 2 weeks ago using their postal votes.

For what it's worth I think that Labour are already preparing for a spell in opposition and that the Conservatives will gain a very small outright majority or narrowly fail to achieve it (counting in the Ulster Unionists they are in alliance with). However, one cannot rule out a Lab-Lib Dem coalition (whether formal or informal) if the Conservatives underperform.
It is interesting that two Government Ministers (one being Gordon Borown's preferred succesor) have called for Labour voters to vote Lib Dem in key marginals where the Lib Dem candidate is closest to the Conservative. This is designed to have two outcomes, one it weakens the Conservatives in a small number of seats and may not actually be significant, but more importantly it would allow the Labour Party post-election to call into question the size of the Lib Dem national vote if a hung parliament is a result and the Lib Dems are trying to maximise their position and influence.

I can't see Brown staying if Lab finish third though, however, Labour could still end up as the biggest party and Brown could still be PM (especially as Labour have already formulated a policy position on PR i.e.the ATV).

As regards, a Labour leader other than Brown becoming PM I can't see a problem outside of the Westminster village. Constitutionally, voters elect a Parliament, MPs decide a Government and parties decide their leader, the fuss would be very short-lived and die down pretty quickly. Whoever is leader of the Labour party after the election will have a good chance of being PM if the Conservatives do not have a majority or are not pretty close to one.

Furthermore, if Milliband/Johnson/Balls were to become leader of the Labour party they would be 'the new show in town' and hqve the inevitable honeymoon period. If the coalition with the Lib Dems was shaky AND the Tories started eating themselves as a result of Cameron failing to deliver a viable Conservative Government (and there is a lot of pent-up anger amongst the Tory party as to the direction Cameron has taken the party) then the stage might be set for another election in the autumn in which the new leader of the Labour party might make them the largest party again (with a much stronger hand in coalition negotiations if they are needed).