HAIL CAMERON; THE WORKERS' FRIEND

By Marjorie Smith

David Cameron's recent pronouncement on a future Tory Government's relationship with the rest of the EU will have the delightful unintended consequence of the UK having to fully adopt the working-time directive if the Tories win power at the next election.

What the strategically-inept Tory leader has not factored into his calculations is that far from fatuously claiming he will repatriate powers from the European level, he has by his actions ensured the complete opposite.

The recent comments of the French Europe Minister Pierre Leliouche that Cameron will 'castrate' any UK influence in the EU under a Tory Government, is scarily accurate in his prediction. The tone of Cameron's speech yesterday allied with his decision to abandon the main centre-right grouping in the European Parliament is, as seen from the rest of the EU, as foolhardy in the extreme and a strategic blunder of immense proportions.

By the very nature of being in a club with 27 members, deals are done all the time so as to maximise the interests of your own particular Member State. The larger the Member, exponentially, the greater the influence. However, if one wants to take an oppositionist stance within the EU, then one's influence and clout declines dramatically.

The amazing consequence of Cameron's actions is that if he carries on ploughing his lonely furrow in the EU (and wins the next general election) then it can be confidently predicted that the TUC's long campaign for the UK to fully adopt the working time directive will have a successful outcome.

Because the UK is perceived as a constructive and highly influential member of the EU, other Member States are quite prepared to make the odd political accommodation for it, when asked. For some strange reason, the Blair/Brown Government see the UK opt-out to parts of the Working Time Directive as a totemic political issue in the UK. They seem to have been cowered by the right-wing press, the CBI and the City over this issue.

Hence, by explaining to some of its EU partners, the self-perceived difficulties it would face if it had to fully adopt the directive, they have been indulged by a few Member States so as to form a blocking minority, when votes are taken. However, that coalition of Member States is predicated on the UK being seen as a constructive partner in the EU.

If the UK became, once again, a one-person awkward squad then the dynamics of the UK's relationship with its EU partners would change dramatically. At present the Member states that support the UK in its (so far successful) campaign to keep the opt–out are Poland, Germany, Estonia, Bulgaria, Malta and Slovenia.

It is extremely unlikely that a Merkel-led coalition (with the liberal Free Democrats) will continue to support the UK over this issue, especially as Cameron has already led his party out of the main centre-right group to set up his own group made up of the vacuous, the vile and the venal under the banner of the European Conservatives and Reformists. In addtion, when a large Member State switches position, then it is normally followed by at least one or two smaller Member States.

Consequently, when the working time directive is next reviewed, the UK will find itself isolated, or with insufficient friends to be able to successfully block any changes to the Directive. The UK opt-out will disappear, we will have to adopt the directive in full and Cameron will have egg all over his face.

All this because of Cameron's lack of strategic thinking, which, except for unintended consequences, bodes ill if this man ever get the keys to number ten.