I WISH ALL THESE INDESPENSABLE BANKERS WOULD LEAVE LONDON (AS IF)

The current right-wing furore about taxing bankers' bonuses demonstrates naked class interest. The shambolic London Mayor, Boris Johnson bleats on about how bankers may leave London in their droves is merely responding to the siren calls of the City of London. As if places like Frankfurt (High tax) and Geneva (high boredom threshold) are beacons of cosmopolitan culture and thriving nightlife.

Bankers who leave the UK should be driven to the airport at the taxpayers' expense (if any really want to); because the one truth in all of this fuss about bankers' bonuses is that none of them are indispensable. If one leaves/retires/is sacked etc etc he/she is easily replaceable. There is not some magic gene pool of talent that is capable of understanding high finance, it is not rocket science.

 Bankers are dispensable. The right-wing media in the UK seem to have (unsurprisingly) fallen for the PR con-trick that senior investment bankers are, as they were once named 'masters of the Universe'. The only thing these rapacious capitalists are masters of, is naked greed.

The graveyards are full of indispensable people. If anybody bleats about bonuses and threatens to leave, lets drive them to the airport.

GERMAN RIGHT-WING COALITION GOVERNMENT UNDER STRESS

The new centre-right German coalition of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Free Democrats (FDP) continues to be shaken by divisions which apart from the smouldering conflict on tax policy have branched into foreign policy issues, such as Afghanistan and Turkey's EU perspective. Foreign Minister Westerwelle´s recent visit to Ankara, has sparked off significant controversies over Ankara´s EU perspective. Bavarian CSU politicians, who still resent the fact that the coalition agreement describes the EU accession process with Ankara as an "open-end process", massively criticised Westerwelle, and called for a stop of accession talks.

          On Afghanistan the partners are at odds over the number of additional troops and the mention of an exit date. Merkel announced that the new government strategy for Afghanistan would not be announced until after the London conference on 28Jan. The SPD, in the meantime is trying to conquer territory by organising a high-level conference on 22 January in Berlin, which EU's High Representative and Vice-President Cathy Ashton and the Afghan Foreign Minister will attend.

           In addition, the coalition partners are at odds about an issue of great importance to German-Polish relations: the appointment of CDU MP Erika Steinbach to the board of the planned museum for displaced persons (in particular Germans after WW II) which is rejected by FM Westerwelle, who has made good relations with Poland one of his priorities.

          Calls on Merkel to show more leadership have become a permanent feature of the domestic debate but have reached a new intensity and dimension as these calls are coming increasingly from within her own party given that the Bavarian CSU and FDP appear to be setting the headlines.  Merkel has called leaders of CSU and FDP for a meeting this coming Sunday, to end the cacophony, to define a common line - in particular on the subject of tax cuts/budget consolidation - and to enable a "new start for the government".

         The internal controversies about Chancellor Merkel´s style of leadership and the lack of unity in the centre-right coalition will also be on the agenda during the CDU recess scheduled for Thursday this week. A recent opinion poll issued by the ARD public TV (Deutschlandtrend) showed diminishing support for the Chancellor: only 59 per cent of Germans proclaimed themselves satisfied with her work which is her worst result since 2006 ( in December 2009 the support was at 70 per cent). 82 per cent are of the opinion that the Chancellor must make better use of her leadership competences and only 51 per cent are convinced that the present coalition is able to cope with the crisis, and the challenges.

         One such challenge for the Government is to define a new strategy on Afghanistan. Shortly before the London Afghanistan conference scheduled for January 28^th , the German response to the US expectations of a significant increase in German troops remains unclear: Chancellor Merkel said the future German Afghanistan strategy would not be unveiled before the summit in London. The elaboration of a common German position within the coalition becomes difficult given the differences between Defence Minister zu Guttenberg (CSU) and Foreign Minister Westerwelle (FDP). While the FDP leader would prefer to focus the London conference on an exit strategy instead of a debate on troop increase, the Defence Minister seems to be more willing to make concessions to the US government. Especially, so his argument, as the controversial German-ordered air strike in September 2009 is the best example of mounting violence and changed circumstances the Bundeswehr faces in Afghanistan.

         Yet, zu Guttenberg has already signalled that the US demand for 2,500 more German troops "is unrealistic". According to sources close to government, the most probable compromise will be to send no more than 1,000 additional soldiers and without a fundamental change in the character of the mission which should continue to focus on reconstruction and training for Afghan military and police forces. The Afghanistan mission is highly unpopular among Germans, and this can not be ignored by any political leadership. According to a recent survey published by infratest-dimap, the support for the Bundeswehr deployment in Afghanistan has further declined. Only 26 per cent are in favour of the German presence at the Hindu Kush, 71 per cent would like to see an immediate withdrawal.

          FM Westerwelle´s recent visit to Ankara, has brought to the forefront the smouldering conflict on Turkey's accession.  CSU politicians still have attacked Westerwelle over the positive stance he took towards the political and economic developments in Turkey as well as to the country's EU membership perspective during his visit - notwithstanding the fact that Westerwelle remained within the framework of the coalition agreement. CSU has called for a stop of negotiations. The reactions within the CDU where mixed: while the foreign policy speaker of the CDU group in the Bundestag, Philipp Mißfelder, supported the harsh line taken by the CSU, the chair of the foreign policy committee of the Bundestag, Ruprecht Polenz, defended FM Westerwelle arguing that he had not said anything what could put in question the line defined in the coalition agreement. In a debriefing at the Foreign Affairs Ministry, the Head of the Turkey Unit confirmed that FM Westerwelle would continue to support Turkey´s accession process not only at the domestic front but also at EU level as he did during the recent December Council.

          The nomination of CDU MP Erika Steinbach, the president of the German Federation of Expellees, to the board of a planned museum on displaced persons is yet another issue of infighting between the partners. FM Westerwelle has vetoed Ms Steinbach's nomination out of respect of keeping good relations with Poland where Ms Steinbach's candidacy is fiercely objected. The fact that in 1990 Ms Steinbach has voted against the recognition of Poland's western border in the bilateral agreements and once opposed Poland's membership in the EU (but revised her position on both issues in the meantime) made her a kind of persona-non grata in Warsaw.

           Last week, Ms Steinbach made a controversial proposal to the government: she would renounce to a seat at the board if a number of conditions are met: a significant increase of representatives of the Expellees Federation in the museum's board as well as less governmental control over the project. First reactions from the FDP show that Ms Steinbach's list of demands has no chance of being accepted. On the other hand, a political solution must be found soon in order to avoid an open political confrontation. The Federation of Expellees announced it would officially propose Ms Steinbach for the museum's board if the government failed to respond to her list of demands by the end of January.

It's anything but plain sailing for Angela Merkel in Berlin

CAMERON IS BOTOX BOY

CAMERON'S RECENT AIRBRUSHED POSTER SCREAMS OUT -------- BOTOX BOY

BERLUSCONI'S BENT BID FOR FUTHER IMMUNITY

BERLUSCONI SEEKS NEW IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTION

          On his first day back at work almost a month after he was attacked, Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was busy on Monday working out a three-pronged strategy to regain his immunity from prosecution. At lunch with the justice minister, his most faithful party allies and his own lawyer, Berlusconi discussed three draft bills -- two of which could be approved by March -- designed to rid him of his legal headaches.

          Two trials for corruption and tax fraud against Berlusconi were allowed to resume last October when Italy's top court ruled that a law passed by his government and shielding him from prosecution while in office was unconstitutional. Since then, the 73-year old media tycoon has sought to restore his immunity and have pending trials stopped. Riding on a wave of sympathy after a mentally unstable man broke his nose and teeth on Dec. 13,

Berlusconi has denounced a climate of hate and split the opposition with a call for dialogue on political reforms -starting with the judiciary. "Let's carry on now," a smiling Berlusconi told supporters waiving a "Welcome Back" banner outside his Rome residence. "I have a little scar here," he said, pointing to his injured cheek. "But my muscles are very strong, you'll see."

AD PERSONAM LAWS  

           On Tuesday, the government is due to submit to parliament -where Berlusconi has an ample majority- a bill that sets a total six-year limit on the three stages of court cases -- initial trial, first appeal and final appeal. But the opposition and magistrates say it is yet another "ad personam" law meant to stop in their tracks the trials against the premier. A second bill expected to land in parliament this week gives Berlusconi a "legitimate impediment" to attending court cases against him because of his official commitments, meaning hearings will have to be rescheduled against him. The third measure being prepared by Berlusconi's allies is a new immunity law that could be extended to all members of parliament -something Italy abolished in the mid-1990s in the wake of the Tangentopoli bribery scandals. This would have to be a constitutional law, which has a longer path through parliament and can be shelved by referendum.

Even Berlusconi's closest aides acknowledge that the aim of the planned reforms is to keep him out of court -but say this is only legitimate because magistrates are out to persecute him. "These are not ad personam laws, but an answer to a politicised judiciary that wants to hit the prime minister," said Berlusconi's spokesman Paolo Bonaiuti.

OPPOSITION IN TROUBLE

Weakened by infighting and fearing a drubbing in regional elections in March, the centre left is in a difficult position. The leader of the main PD opposition party, Pierluigi Bersani, has said he is open to dialogue with the government on genuine reforms, but not on tailor-made laws to save the premier. If he does strike a deal with Berlusconi on the judiciary, Bersani risks losing his main ally -former magistrate Antonio Di Pietro, who rejects any agreement with the government. But if he does not, the PD leader would likely undermine an electoral alliance with centrist parties like the UDC, which says that an ad-hoc law shielding Berlusconi is better than a bad reform which could terminate up to 100,000 trials.

I'm due to return from the far east on Monday 11 January

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THE ROBBING BANKS

This morning's decision by the new UK Supreme court to block the Ofiice of Fair Trading's attmpts to make the Bank's pay back their usurious penalty charges is an absolute disgrace.

One of the banks' central claim was that it would result in a deluge of cases. This is errant nonsense, if you rip-off millions of customers, you have to recompense millions of customers. It's as if the banks' are claiming that since we deal with millions of people we can't be expected to deal with them individually (of course, they always claim in their marketing bumpf that, that is precisely what they do). A defence based on size is an affront to natural justice

What's worse in some banks e.g. Barclays, staff were instructed months ago to calculate how much customers who had challenged the banks over their overdraft penalty charges would have to be refunded.

The craven Supreme Court has acted in its best class interest.

BARROSO WANTS NEW COMMISSION TO FOCUS ON SOCIAL ISSUES

 The next European Commission should be in place by the end of January, Jose Manuel Barroso said on Tuesday. The last of 27 nominees for Commission posts, one from each EU member state, was proposed on Tuesday, meaning consultations now begin on how to distribute the portfolios in the body that initiates laws and implements decisions across the EU.

 "We should already have a new Commission by now and we have not. I hope to have it at the end of January," Barroso told MEPs at a meeting in Strasbourg. Barroso said a focus of the next Commission, and the European Union as a whole, would be the fallout from the economic and financial crisis on the EU's 500 million people.

"We have a situation of urgency regarding social matters, mainly because of rising unemployment," he said. "There is a risk of a decade of low growth and high unemployment and that will put severe strain on our social models and our living standards, that's why I really think it is important to work on the matters of social inclusion."

"Just today I received the final name of the 27 members' designated commissioners, only today. That is why we are in fact going a little bit late," he said.

Some Commission portfolios, particularly competition, internal markets, monetary affairs and trade, have broad powers and are highly sought after by member states. France is angling to take on the internal markets portfolio in the next Commission, which could give it a say in regulating financial services. Germany is interested in the industry, trade or competition portfolios, diplomats says.

Under EU rules, the Commission should have been formed by the beginning of November. But a series of delays, including the need to ratify the Lisbon reform treaty that streamlines EU decision-making, has caused the process to be pushed back. Commissioners serve for a five-year term and can build up widespread influence in that time. The competition commissioner, for example, has oversight on mergers and acquisitions and is responsible for enforcing anti-trust regulations.

MORE WOMEN COMMISSIONERS Outgoing Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes, from the Netherlands, developed a reputation as a tough enforcer of rules on state aid and as a champion of consumer rights. Kroes has been put forward again by the Netherlands to serve in the next Commission, although it is unlikely that she will get the competition portfolio again. "I've heard that Barroso has decided no one will continue in their current position and that people will rotate," Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos told Dutch TV on Tuesday.

Barroso had said he would like to have more women in the Commission. Given nominations so far, he could have nine women in the next Commission, up from eight in the outgoing one. Barroso, who won support from the European Parliament for a second five-year term as president in September, is expected to announce his Commission line up in the coming days.

 The European Parliament will then invite nominees for hearings, most likely during January, after which a vote will be taken on the full Commission. Parliamentarians do not expect that process to be completed before Feb. 1.

U.K. POLICE HAS ALREADY OBTAINED DNA OF 75 % OF ALL BLACK YOUTH

  As many as three quarters of all black men in Britain aged 18-35 have had their genetic information placed on the country's massive DNA database, a group charged with reviewing officials' use of genetic technology said Tuesday. The Human Genetics Commission _an independent government advisory board made up of scientists, lawyers and other experts_ said young black males were «very highly over-represented» on the DNA register and could be unfairly stigmatized by being placed on the database in such large numbers.

            «My breath was slightly taken away by that figure,» commission chairman Jonathan Montgomery said in a telephone interview. «We know young black men are much more likely to be arrested than others, and putting them on the DNA database magnifies the impact,» he said. «If the arrest pattern is discriminatory, this makes it even worse.» Britain has one of the largest DNA databases in the world, with profiles of over 5 million people, or 8 percent of the population. Seven percent of those on the register are black, according to government figures _even though only about 2 percent of the population of England and Wales is black.

            Montgomery said his commission's figures came from the Equality and Human Rights Commission, a government body that has estimated that about a third of all black men _and 75 percent of all young black men_ are on the national register. Last month, security minister Alan West acknowledged that the overrepresentation of blacks and other minorities on the database was worrying, but said that «our initial look at this makes us feel that this is to do with the fact that in the criminal justice system as a whole there is overrepresentation of black people.»

           Montgomery's commission said police should stop taking DNA samples from every person who is arrested, arguing that decisions on whether DNA samples are taken should be based in part on the seriousness of the offense and the circumstances of the arrest. British officials had planned to keep genetic information of innocent people indefinitely, but the European Court of Human Rights ruled unanimously last year that keeping such information on innocent people forever violated their right to privacy, forcing the British government to modify its practices. New guidelines announced earlier this month call for the DNA profiles of most innocent people be purged from the system after six years, although people suspected of terrorist offenses would be excluded from this rule.

POLICE DISMISS CRITICISM  British officials indicated they are not likely to be swayed by the advisory board's criticism of the DNA program. «DNA samples are taken on arrest for recordable offenses carrying a prison sentence,» a spokeswoman for Britain's Home Office said. «The government is clear that this is the right threshold for taking and retaining DNA.» The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with department policy, said the DNA database is a «vital crime fighting tool.»

EU URGES US AND CHINA TO DELIVER ON CLIMATE CHANGE

          The European Union on Monday urged the U.S. and China to deliver greenhouse gas emissions targets at next month's climate conference in Copenhagen, saying their delays were hindering global efforts to curb climate change.

Two weeks before the U.N.-sponsored conference, the world's largest polluters have not put any firm bids on the table. «That strategy is untenable,» Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt wrote. «It provides no global answer. It does not solve the threat of climate change.»

The U.S. still has not committed to figures for its own emissions reductions or financing, with negotiators waiting until Congress completes domestic climate legislation. Chinese President Hu Jintao said last week that nations would each do what they were able _referring to China's view that developing nations should not be required to make cuts.

China has promised to curb emissions but has not said by how much. World leaders are no longer expected to reach a legally binding agreement in Copenhagen, and are aiming instead for a political deal that includes commitments on reducing emissions and financing for developing countries to deal with climate change. «We still expect all content to be agreed upon at Copenhagen,» Swedish Environment Minister Andreas Carlgren said in Brussels, where EU environment ministers were meeting to hammer out their final position for the talks.

A panel of U.N. scientists has recommended that developed countries make cuts of between 25 % and 40 % of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The EU aims for deeper cuts than most other industrialized nations _pledging to move from a 20 % cut below 1990 levels to 30 % if others follow suit. By 2050, it wants to eliminate most emissions, with a target of up to 95 %.

The U.S. is considering a far lower cut _17 % from 2005 levels or about 3.5 % from 1990. Japan has promised a 25 % reduction from 1990 levels. Per head, Americans account for twice the emissions compared to Europeans and Japanese.

While the EU sees itself as a trailblazer, it has delayed promising cash to poorer nations to help them tackle global warming. EU leaders have pledged to pay their «fair share» into an annual global fund but gave no amount. They estimated that €100 billion ($148 billion) a year is needed and that half should come from governments. The EU's executive suggested that the 27 EU governments should give up to €15 billion ($22 billion) a year from 2013 to 2020.

NOT WELL KNOWN; BUT DON'T UNDERESTIMATE VON ROMPUY OR ASHTON

           European Union leaders have named Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy and Britain's Catherine Ashton as EU president and foreign policy chief. Such a deal is a vote for consensus builders over big-name personalities and means that while European decision-making may become more streamlined, the EU will still struggle to punch its weight in international diplomacy.

          Van Rompuy, virtually unknown on the world stage, is regarded as a sharp and efficient operator in his home country. He has been prime minister for only a year, but in that time has won high praise for bringing Belgium's long-divided Flemish and French-speaking communities closer together. In backing him for president of the EU Council, a move largely driven by France and Germany, EU leaders are asking Van Rompuy, a 62-year-old consummate politician fond of writing Haiku poems, to serve as a business-like chairman of the union.

           "It's not a glamour team," an EU diplomat said. He can be expected to run a tight, well-organised agenda, and his behind-the-scenes style should help find consensus among the EU's 27 sometimes fractious states.

EFFICIENCY WINS OVER BIG NAME 

           The choice of Ashton to serve as high representative for foreign affairs is also a nod towards understated efficiency rather than the influence of a high-profile, big-name diplomat. Ashton, who has spent the past year serving as the EU's trade commissioner, has relatively little experience in foreign affairs. But she picked up her trade brief quickly and has earned a reputation as being an astute negotiator. "It is not a bad choice," said Hugo Brady, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform think tank, referring to the pairing. "Ashton does not have very strong foreign policy credentials, but she is a very capable person," he said.
 KISSINGER VERSUS ERASMUS

          From the outside, however, particularly from the point of view of Washington, Beijing or New Delhi, the EU's choices are likely to raise some question marks. If U.S. President Barack Obama or Chinese President Hu Jintao wants to "speak to Europe", they will now be expected to call Van Rompuy or Ashton. Instead Jose Manuel Barroso is likely to be a more high-profile touchstone for foreign leaders. To that extent, the choices of Ashton and Van Rompuy seem to go against one concept of the jobs, which was to increase the bloc's global clout as well as streamlining decision-making. But with 27 countries in the union, what is needed before the EU can become a major player in world affairs is a set of common foreign and security policy objectives.

          To get those, negotiation, debate and compromise are needed first. Van Rompuy and Ashton, 53, will be instrumental in trying to achieve that, and the EU's leaders will know they have two skilled and efficient politicians working on the issues.

SISTERS ARE DOING IT FOR THEMSELVES

 It can be expected that the US Democrat Secretary of State Hilary Clinton will find it very easy to strike up a warm working relationship with the Labour Party's Cathy Ashton with both sharing similar views on a multitude of subjects.

ASHTON THE QUIET FIXER

           "(Ashton)'s never been a foreign secretary. However, she has been in the international trade business for quite some time and has quite of lot of experience in multilateral affairs," said Antonio Missiroli of the European Policy Centre. In her time as trade commissioner, Ashton has been key in bringing the United States and India together to kickstart the Doha round of world trade talks. She has also brokered the EU's largest foreign trade agreement, a 100 billion euro ($150 billion) pact with South Korea, and solved two of the EU's most intractable trade disputes. With international diplomacy closely tied to trade, and the EU constituting the world's largest economic trading zone, Ashton appears to be a choice that reflects the EU's desire to tie its economic strength closely to diplomatic influence.

In part of the quid pro quo of these selections FRANCE’S DE BOISSEU GETS COUNCIL SECRETARIAT and the German candidate (yet to selected by Germany) for the European Central Bank is now a shoe-in

UK COULD HAVE LOST AN EU COMMISSIONER

Marjorie Smith

            One thing about the new woman or man who will become the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, that is little known, is that they will take up their Member State's representation in the European Commission.

            That's because the new post-holder will not only be a member of the 27 seat college of Commissioners but also be a Vice-President of the European Commission. The new post-holder will also report to the Council of Ministers General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC). The GAERC meets monthly and is made up of the 27 Foreign Affairs Ministers from each of the Member States.

            For example, if David Milliband had become the new foreign policy chief, then the UK would not have kept its normal Commissioner post. The same applies to anybody who takes up the post, they will forego their Member state's normal position within the Commission.

          One other aspect of the new post of EU Foreign Minister that is little mentioned is that the position itself is an institutional hybrid. The post involves loyalties to both the European Commission and the Council of Ministers, with the Minister being a Vive-President in the Commission and directly reporting to the 27 EU Member States'Foreign Ministers in the Council of Minsiters. Up until now, there has been no such institutional hybridisation in the EU. It will be intersting to see how this develops.

            Consequently, since the post involves such divided loyalties between the Council and the Commission, anybody who takes up the post would be well-advised to have their offices in neither in the Council of Ministers' Justus Lipsus building nor in the Commission's landmark Berlaymont building.

WHY THE SELECTION OF AN EU PRESIDENT ISN'T WHAT IT SEEMS

Marjorie Smith

           The EU's new President (as constituted under the Lisbon treaty) is due to be selected in Brussels  Thursday evening or more likely Friday morning. What will be a far less powerful position than many imagine, will be the subject of intense horse-trading and brinkmanship by the 27 Member States.

           Whoever becomes EU President will find themselves in an institutional position more akin to the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, a constitutional position more akin to the President of Germany or Ireland and in a ceremonial position more akin to the Secretary-General of the UN. In other words and in many respects, a sheep in wolf's clothing.

           Like any multilateral international negotiations, the process is complicated whenever there is either no clear candidate or that the selection process is semi-informal and unstructured. Both apply in this case. Calls for the President to be elected abound at the present time, yet for many, such a course of action would undermine the very purpose of the EU.

           This is because many people seem to fundamentally misunderstand how the EU President will be selected and why having a direct election would be problematic.

            The accusations in the right-wing press are flying thick and fast: Just like the Soviet Union! Decisions made behind closed doors! Typically secretive! Anti-democratic! Etc. Etc. These are just some of the ignorant headlines being bandied about by many and not just by eurosceptics.

            The basic premise to remember is that the EU is a club of 27 members, it's as simple as that. The members are the individual Member States, The commission is the staff and the European Parliament is the management committee.

            It's up to the 27 who they appoint and if there isn't going to be consensus, then a democratic vote will be taken amongst the 27. The vote will be by Qualified Majority Vote (QMV) with the larger Member States having a bigger weighting roughly according to population size. Seems eminently democratic to me.

            For those, who claim it is anti-democratic, what exact element of democracy would they like to see? If the President of the EU, as constituted according to the Lisbon Treaty was to be directly elected, then he/she would receive a democratic mandate that would serve as a competing centre of power to the Member States. It would also serve as a competing power to the directly elected European Parliament.

            Eurosceptics would end up with a new powerful trans-national European institution with a direct fully democratic legitimacy that would not be dependent on any Member State for their power base. Is that what they want when they accuse the present system of being anti-democratic? Of course not, they just want a stick to beat the EU with and any stick will do.

            The other main criticism is that nobody knows who is standing, just that the post should be filled by a person who preferably currently holds high political office or has done so recently. Since this is a new post, there is no recognised system of choosing a President, hence people currently treading warily. Secondly, it's inevitable that current Prime Ministers have not formally applied for the position, because it would be political suicide at home, if their names where formally put forward and they didn't win.

           The actual position is far less powerful, or influential, than many suppose. Unlike in France or the USA, the role of EU President will be one of coordination, representation and chairing not one of leadership, policy formulation and carrying out a democratic mandate for change. The position of EU Foreign Minister is a much more influential role and being an institutional hybrid, has far more scope to be a player.

            If those who criticise the process have constructive alternatives to what is currently happening would like to make their suggestions known that would be most welcome. But, as ever, those who are most vociferous about the EU are usually the most ignorant about it as well.

EU STILL AT NOMINATIONS IMPASSE AHEAD OF THURSDAY SUMMIT

A summit this week to appoint an EU president and foreign affairs chief looks set to run over schedule with no clear candidates agreed despite long consultations, EU officials said on Tuesday.

Sweden has called a summit in Brussels on Thursday to decide who fills the jobs. But midway through a second round of discussions with EU leaders, no unanimous names have emerged. Herman Van Rompuy is the frontrunner to become president, but diplomats say no agreement has been reached on the foreign policy job and some countries want a more established statesmen than Van Rompuy as president. "There is still no clear candidate for either job," an EU diplomat with knowledge of the negotiations said.

Fredrik Reinfeldt had hoped unanimous candidates for both jobs would emerge from talks with leaders and would be confirmed at a dinner. The summit now looks likely to run into the early hours of Friday and beyond.

FRIDAY BREAKFAST ORDERED  

Sweden has even taken the precaution of ordering breakfast for the heads of state and government attending the summit in case the dinner ends without a result, diplomats say. "If there is no agreement -and currently many things seem to be blocked- then it must continue on Friday or probably it will have to be postponed," Austrian Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger told reporters on Monday.

At least six names have repeatedly been mentioned by diplomats and analysts for the president's job, and a similar number for the role of high representative, but the list seems to grow rather than shorten. The EU is expected to opt for a centre-right president and a centre-left foreign affairs chief. There is no firm favourite for the latter role, but Italians Massimo D'Alema and Giuliano Amato are increasingly mentioned as candidates. Despite calls for a women to have one of the top jobs, no women are thought to be among the front-runners.

BRITAIN FACES BEING SIDELINED

 EU diplomats say Britain is still pushing for Tony Blair to be president but many other states are against. Britain's insistence on Blair is creating an impasse, the diplomat familiar with the process said, and Britain could find itself sidelined if the decision ultimately went to a vote. "Any decision without the UK's backing would not be good PR for the EU, but the Swedes, France, Germany and others may be willing to go for a vote without the British," he said.

EU DEADLOCKED BEFORE THURSDAY SUMMIT

 Divisions among member states are threatening the European Union's chances of agreeing on a president and foreign affairs chief at a summit this week, EU officials said on Monday. Herman Van Rompuy is the frontrunner to become president, but diplomats say no agreement has been reached on the foreign policy job and some countries want a more established statesman than Van Rompuy as the figurehead leader. "It is crucial that there are talks until Thursday and that there is a decision on Thursday -- or it will be postponed," Austrian Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger told reporters at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels. "If there is no agreement -and currently many things seem to be blocked- then it must continue on Friday or probably it will have to be postponed."

HEADING FOR A VOTE 

Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb said he thought it unlikely that EU heads of state and government would fail to agree on the two names on or before Thursday. But, like other EU officials, he made clear it was proving difficult to reach a consensus on the candidates and it might come down to a vote, although the bloc hoped to avoid this. "My hope is that we don't have to go for an actual vote, that a compromise will have been found at the end," he said. "The worst-case scenario would be that we would not be able to nominate anyone on Thursday night."

FINDING A BALANCE

µ The EU is expected to opt for a centre-right president and a centre-left foreign affairs chief but there is no firm favourite for the latter role, although Italians Massimo D'Alema and Giuliano Amato are increasingly mentioned as candidates. Despite calls for a woman to have one of the top jobs, no women are thought to be among the frontrunners EU diplomats say Britain is still pushing for former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to be president but many other states want a relatively low-profile leader who they believe would be better able to secure a consensus at meetings. [ID:nLT673586] "Blair is by far the biggest problem," an EU diplomat said. The envoy said British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will not budge on the issue of his predecessor becoming EU president.

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said he saw no reason why agreement would not be reached this week and added: "Now is the time for a decision. We are at a defining period for Europe's global role in a number of ways." He said implementing the Lisbon treaty was vital to the EU's role on the world stage, where its leaders say it faces irrelevance if does not reform to match the rise of emerging powers such as China following the global economic crisis. "But we have quite a number of difficult decisions when it comes to turning Lisbon into reality and the sum of those decisions will be defining for the role Europe can play on the global stage in the years ahead," Bildt said.

THE PCC TO REGULATE BLOGS? - YOU MUST BE JOKING

Ian Burrell, who edits The Independent's Media Pages, has a very disturbing blogpost about the ambition of the Press Complaints Commission to regulate blogs.  Baroness Buscombe, the new chairman  PCC,seems to want to extend her territorial claims without realising that she doesn't even control the press. The PCC's pathetic idea that it regulates the press is bad joke. She is merely a fig leaf for the lower end of the UK printed media and the sooner she realises that the better.

She wants to examine the possibility that the PCC's role should be extended to cover the blogosphere, which is becoming an increasing source of breaking news and boasts some of the media's highest-profile commentators, such as the political bloggers Iain Dale and Guido Fawkes. Do readers of such sites, and people mentioned on them, deserve the same rights of redress that the PCC offers in respect of newspapers and their sites?

"Some of the bloggers are now creating their own ecosystems which are quite sophisticated," Baroness Buscombe told me. "Is the reader of those blogs assuming that it's news, and is [the blogosphere] the new newspapers? It's a very interesting area and quite challenging."

She said that after a review of the governance structures of the PCC, she would want the organisation to "consider" whether it should seek to extend its remit to the blogosphere, a process that would involve discussion with the press industry, the public and bloggers (who would presumably have to volunteer to come beneath the PCC's umbrella).

The PCC regulates the press online as well as in print, and its remit also extends to the Sun's radio operation, SunTalk.

Blogging, with its tradition of being free and unregulated, sees itself as very different. But is it really?

The PPC is a wholly-'owned' puppet of the large-seling tabloids, let it continue with its traditional role of defending its own nefarious backers and not pollute the blogosphere.

SWEDES STILL HANGING ON THE TELEPHONE TO DISCARD UNWANTED EU CANDIDATES

           The Swedish Prime Minster Fredrik Reinfeldt has been tasked (because Sweden curently runs the EU Presidency) with leading negotiations to appoint the bloc's first-ever permanent president ahead of a summit on November 19. And officials say that Reinfeldt and his staff have been rarely off the phone in recent days as they have called every national leader in the EU to ask who their choice would be. "Every one of the 27 member states should be able to have their say ... Just to reach all the presidents and prime ministers in 26 countries is a task, I can tell you," a weary-looking Reinfeldt said this week.

            For much of this week, Reinfeldt has been cloistered in his office above the quays of Stockholm, phoning colleague after colleague while his aides called around Europe's capitals to set up more talks. "When you actually speak with all 26 colleagues you have more names than jobs to offer," Reinfeldt lamented. According to EU sources, the hours of calls produced "about 10 names" for each of the top posts.

           Finding a way to reduce those lists to just two or three names before the summit looks likely to take a lot more telephone time. "We have the main balance between left and right in politics, but as you know, that's not the only balance we're talking about - we talk about small, medium and big member states, we talk about north and south, west and east, we talk about gender issues," Reinfeldt said. Britain is openly 'pushing' for Tony Blair. Latvia is lobbying on behalf of Vaira Vike-Freiberga, while Italy is backing Massimo D'Alema.

            But beyond that circle, governments have maintained a stony silence on the key question of which names are on the list. "We can't make any statements on this issue -there are some ideas in (our capital), but there is a total embargo on that information," one diplomat from a small Eastern European state said on Thursday. Most candidates are reluctant to reveal themselves because to make a formal bid without overwhelming support would mean "sending the signal to your people that I'm on the way to another job but on Monday I'm back again and I didn't get it but I still love you," Reinfeldt said.

            The pressure from the media to publish the list is now so great that the Swedish premier might even be looking forward to spending the next few days alone in his office with a hot telephone. But with just days to go before Thursday's showdown, and key events such as a summit with Russia set to take up much of his available time, he must be wondering how far telephone democracy will take him -and how much will have to be left to the summit itself. "I could foresee that I might need to work with it until we arrive at our council (summit) dinner," he said.

EU PRESIDENCY FINDS IT DIFFICULT TO REACH NOMINATIONS CONSENSUS

          There is still no consensus on who should become the European Union's first full-time president and its new foreign policy supremo, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said Wednesday.

          Eight days before the bloc's leaders were to meet at a special summit in Brussels to pick the candidates for the two posts, Reinfeldt told reporters: "I have more names than jobs to offer." Earlier Wednesday, Reinfeldt's office announced that a special meeting of EU heads of state and government would be held in Brussels on November 19. Reinfeldt said the "early dinner" summit would be tasked with selecting the most suitable candidates for the two posts being created by the Lisbon Treaty, which is due to come into force on December 1.

          As the current holder of the EU's rotating presidency, it is his task to draw up a final shortlist of candidates to present to national leaders. However, the Swedish premier conceded that he was having a tough time getting any agreement. "It will take time to get everything in place," Reinfeldt said, noting that he had spent the better part of two days to hold a first round of consultations with fellow leaders.

           Aside from the fact that different member states were proposing different names, Reinfeldt said he was finding it particularly difficult to find a balance between the political left and right and the often conflicting interests of small- and medium-sized countries, northerners and southerners, those in the East and those in the West. Calls for more women to be appointed to the bloc's top posts, as well as the fact that some countries were proposing more than one name, compounded to his problems, a frustrated Reinfeldt said.

20 CANDIDATES ALREADY

           According to EU diplomats, national governments have so far formally proposed "around 10 names" for the job of president, and a similar number for the post of "EU High Representative," the foreign- policy head. Reinfeldt confirmed that some of the potential candidates he was discussing with leaders had already been circulating in the international media. And he further confirmed that some of them were prime ministers in office. Asked about a Polish proposal that would see potential candidates putting their name forward, Reinfeldt said no top politician would risk their current job without receiving guarantees that they would eventually be appointed to their new European post.

           "The problem with this proposal is that it takes for granted that you can actually get three or more candidates to accept to be candidates without knowing if they will get the job while in fact maybe being prime minister of a country" Reinfeldt said. "Anyone who is in politics knows this is unrealistic," he said.

MAJORITY VOTE POSSIBLE  

           Under treaty rules, the president and foreign representative are appointed by qualified majority vote. And Reinfeldt conceded that no candidate was likely to obtain the unanimous backing of all 27 leaders. However, Reinfeldt said he would still work to muster "the broadest support" possible for the two posts. The full list of current nominees is a closely-guarded secret. However, diplomats in Brussels say Van Rompuy and Balkenende are both front-runners for the job of president.

            Italy's former premier Massimo D'Alema is rumoured to be a key candidate for the high representative's post after Britain's David Miliband repeatedly said that he was not a candidate. However, D'Alema is viewed with some concern in the EU's new member states which once were part of the Warsaw Pact because of his lifelong association with Italy's Communist party.

FRANCE AND GERMANY SEEM FURTHER APART THAN EVER

From a source in Brussels

              Throughout the Cold War, Germany was the steadfast trans-Atlantic ally and France the perpetual sceptic. Paris snubbed NATO, booted allied soldiers off its soil and sought a privileged relationship with Moscow. Then one night the Berlin Wall fell _and 20 years later, the roles subtly have shifted. Nicolas Sarkozy is seeking to be a NATO stalwart, bringing his country back into the alliance's military command.

              As a result, France received two NATO command posts. At the same time, Angela Merkel while reaching out to the United States is pursuing closer ties with Russia that have left Washington unsettled. This evolution in France and Germany's relationships with the Cold War superpowers is altering the shape of their own relationship, which both countries long considered the «motor» of the EU. Sarkozy and Merkel will send yet another powerful sign of their countries' friendship Wednesday at the Arc de Triomphe, when for the first time French and German leaders jointly mark the anniversary of the Nov. 11 armistice that ended World War One.

              Symbols aside, as much as Sarkozy and Merkel might like to emphasize the privileged nature of the Franco-German couple, ties between the countries are no longer what they used to be _and pushing the restart button over and over again does not guarantee a smooth ride. «Both sides' sense of the relationship has been lost,» said Josef Janning, senior director of the Bertelsmann Foundation. The two countries used to be at «the core of bargaining» in the EU, but «currently, nobody really knows what the purpose» of the relationship is, Janning said. Germany and France spent the decades after World War II in a long, painful period of «reconciliation» as Germany atoned for the Holocaust and its occupation of France.

GERMANY LOOKS EAST  

              After the Berlin Wall came down, Germany found it had to atone yet again, this time with Poland and Russia, both of which suffered greatly under Nazi invasions. Despite deep historical wariness all around, Poland and Russia also offered tremendous economic and even diplomatic opportunities for Germany to expand its influence eastward and thereby reduced Berlin's need to rely only on Paris as its major partner on the continent.

LAPSUS LINGUAE?

              In her first speech Wednesday to the German parliament since winning a second term as chancellor, Merkel said she wanted to pursue a broad security dialogue with Russia. She did not mention France or the Franco-German relationship in the speech. Germany's determination to make its relationship with Russia a top priority took off under Merkel's predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder, who made a strategic decision to tether his nation firmly to Russia's immense energy wealth. Unlike Schroeder, Merkel has avoided fawning on Russia: She has moved to improve relations with Poland and has pledged to stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States in Afghanistan. But she has continued to deepen ties with Moscow through business and diplomatic initiatives.

BERLIN IGNORES PARIS COURTSHIP

              Conscious of its slipping profile in Germany, the French government in recent months has multiplied efforts to revive the relationship. The courtship includes high-profile political gestures, as well as numerous conferences devoted to the French-German relationship. In July, a new Franco-German military brigade marched down the Champs-Elysees on Bastille Day with Sarkozy looking on. The French Foreign Ministry on Monday spearheaded a huge light show and concert on the Place de la Concorde, celebrations billed as a «present» to the German people on the 20th anniversary of the Berlin Wall's fall. And on Wednesday, Merkel joins Sarkozy to commemorate the 91st anniversary of the armistice. In the long run, however, in the absence of concrete steps to reassert joint French-German leadership in Europe, these gestures may not have great meaning. «If you kiss,» Janning said, «it doesn't mean that much because it is part of the in and out of global diplomacy.»

SLEEPING WITH THE ENEMY?

   While France loves the big gestures, the Germans are in a pragmatic mood these days, French-German specialists say. It shows in some of the business deals Germany has struck in recent months. Earlier this year, German industrial conglomerate giant Siemens pulled out of a nuclear power plant joint venture with France's Areva and then turned around to engage in talks on forming a nuclear energy venture with Russia's Rosatom. Siemens built the new high-speed train between Moscow and St. Petersburg for a line expected to open later this year. «The style fundamentally has changed,» Hans Stark, who chairs research into France and Germany at the French Institute for International Affairs, told a gathering of diplomats, analysts and journalists this week.

EU PRESIDENT NOMINATIONS SUMMIT ON NOVEMBER 19

By Marjorie Smith
Brussels


European Union leaders are expected to choose the first president of the 27-member bloc next week, at a summit scheduled for November 19, German Press Agency dpa learned from diplomats in Brussels on Tuesday.

            By then, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, who is coordinating the negotiations, plans to have ended consultations with the EU member states - enabling the EU leaders to fill two new high-profile EU posts on November 19.  National leaders are currently debating who should get the jobs.

            According to diplomats in Brussels, the prime ministers of Belgium and the Netherlands, Herman Van Rompuy and Jan Peter Balkenende, are front-runners to claim the post of EU president. Britain's foreign minister, David Miliband, is said to be the front-runner for the job of EU high representative, even though he has regularly denied being interested in the job. Gordon Brown denied that Miliband was a candidate. Another contender for this post is former Italian prime minister Massimo D'Alema.

VAN ROMPUY IS NOT THE FAVOURITE, SAYS FRANCE'S KOUCHNER

                No favourites have yet emerged, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said on Tuesday. Kouchner said he doubted the 27 EU heads of state and government would agree this week, as had seemed possible, on who should become president of the EU Council and the bloc's high representative for foreign affairs. "Honestly, there are no favourites at the moment," he told France Inter radio. "France does not have any favourite. We are waiting. There will be a meeting, I think, next week. It should have been at the end of this week, but I don't believe that will happen."

            EU diplomats have said there was strong backing for Herman Van Rompuy, but Kouchner said Tony Blair and Jean-Claude Juncker remained in the running. "There is Tony Blair's name, of course, and that was the first. There is the name of the Belgian prime minister, and then there are other names. There is Jean-Claude Juncker," he said. Kouchner reiterated that France and Germany would support the same candidates and made no mention of who might become the bloc's foreign policy supremo.

            Although he declined to say who he supported for the office of president, he indicated that he wanted a heavy hitter. "The time has come for us to have someone who can make their weight felt not only in meetings, but in the preparation for these meetings, in the European debate," he said.

NEW EUROPEAN COMMISSION IS FACING GENDER ISSUES

By Marjorie Smith

           It appears that Manuel Barroso's attempts to form a new fairly gender neutral European Commision for the period 2010 to the end of 2014 has got of to a calamitous start. President Barroso explicitly asked the 27 Mmeber States to nominate more women as one of the 27 Commissioners in his new Commission.

           In the current Commission , there are 8 Commissioners out of a total of 27 (less than a third) and the current Vice-President of the Commission, Margot Wallstrom, has gone on the record calling for an increase of women being nominated for top jobs in international organisations.

         However, so far only five Member States have nominated a candidate to be a Commissioner and all five candidates are male. Gunter Oettinger, from Germany, Maros Sefcovic from Slovakia, Johannes Hahn from Austria, Laszlo Andor from Hungary and Stefan Fule from the Czech Republic. It appears also that Michel Barnier from France is a shoe-in as the French nominee.

           Six men nominated by six Member States is a worrying start to the nomination process. The stupid thing is that as Member States battle it out to get their 'guy' an impressive and important potfolio in the new Commission, it is those Member states who nominate a woman as a Commissioner who are going to have a head start if present trends in nominations continue.